The Rankings Collapse
Before Oklahoma
#4
CFP Rankings
After Oklahoma
#10
Dropped 6 Spots
Playoff Status
Last Team In
Bubble Team
From Comfortable to Critical: Alabama's Ranking Free Fall
On November 19, 2025, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released its fourth set of rankings, and the news for Alabama was devastating: the Crimson Tide had plummeted from #4 to #10, dropping six spots after their shocking 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma on November 15.
But this wasn't just a rankings drop—it was a complete reversal of fortune. Alabama went from playoff favorite with a first-round bye to the last team in the projected playoff field, clinging desperately to their postseason hopes with just one regular-season game remaining.
The Numbers: A Brutal Reality Check
Alabama's CFP Ranking Timeline
What This Drop Means
- Before: Projected first-round bye in 12-team playoff
- After: Last at-large team in the field (#10)
- Reality: One more loss eliminates Alabama from playoff contention
- Margin for Error: ZERO
How the Playoff Committee Reacted to the Oklahoma Loss
The College Football Playoff Committee's decision to drop Alabama six spots wasn't arbitrary—it reflected fundamental concerns about the Crimson Tide's performance, résumé, and ability to compete with elite teams.
Why Alabama Dropped So Far
1. Loss to Oklahoma Was Damaging
Losing at home to an 8-2 Oklahoma team that was ranked #11 was bad. Losing at Bryant-Denny Stadium, where Alabama had won 17 straight games, was worse. But losing due to three turnovers and defensive breakdowns? That was catastrophic in the committee's eyes.
2. Other Teams Surged Past
Teams like Oklahoma moved up to #8 after the Alabama win, leapfrogging the Tide. Other SEC teams with comparable records suddenly looked more impressive.
3. Quality Wins Questioned
Alabama entered the week with four top-25 victories, more than many teams ranked ahead of them. But the committee apparently valued quality of losses and recent performance more than win totals.
4. SEC Competition
Alabama is now fifth among SEC schools in the rankings, behind Georgia, Texas A&M, and others. The SEC's depth works against individual teams when résumés are comparable.
Alabama's Playoff Path: What Must Happen
At 9-2 (6-1 SEC) after demolishing Eastern Illinois 56-0, Alabama's playoff hopes now rest on a razor-thin margin. The Crimson Tide must win the Iron Bowl against Auburn on November 29—and even that might not be enough.
Alabama's Remaining Playoff Scenario
Mandatory. A loss to Auburn drops Alabama to 9-3 and eliminates them from playoff contention.
Alabama needs teams ranked 4-9 to suffer losses in their final games to create space in the rankings.
Even at 10-2, Alabama may not be a lock. They'll need the committee to favor their résumé over other 2-loss teams.
The 84% Playoff Probability
According to ESPN's playoff probability model, Alabama has an 84% chance of making the playoff if they beat Auburn. But that number is misleading—it assumes other results break favorably for the Tide.
The reality is more complex. Alabama's destiny is no longer entirely in their own hands. They need wins AND help from other teams.
Who Alabama Is Competing Against
Teams Ranked Ahead of Alabama (#1-#9)
- #1 Ohio State - Undefeated Big Ten leader
- #2 Indiana - Surprise Big Ten contender
- #3 Texas A&M - SEC rival with better conference record
- #4 Georgia - SEC powerhouse
- #5 Texas - Strong résumé, lost to Georgia
- #6 Tech - Conference leader
- #7 Ole Miss - SEC competitor
- #8 Oklahoma - Just beat Alabama
- #9 Notre Dame - Independent with solid record
Alabama must hope that several of these teams stumble in their final games. Conference championship games could create chaos—or leave Alabama on the outside looking in.
The Iron Bowl: Biggest Game of the Season
What was already the most important rivalry game in college football has now become a playoff elimination game for Alabama. The Crimson Tide faces Auburn (5-6, 1-6 SEC) on November 29 at Jordan-Hare Stadium, and the stakes couldn't be higher.
Iron Bowl Pressure Points
- ✓ Alabama needs a WIN to stay in playoff conversation
- ✓ Auburn playing at home with nothing to lose
- ✓ Auburn's interim coach DJ Durkin looking to prove himself
- ✓ Freshman QB Deuce Knight just accounted for 401 yards and 6 TDs vs Mercer
- ✓ Alabama's turnover problems exposed by Oklahoma
Auburn smells blood. They've lost five straight Iron Bowls but know Alabama is vulnerable. An upset would end Alabama's playoff hopes and give Auburn bragging rights in a disappointing season.
What This Means for Kalen DeBoer
DeBoer's second season at Alabama is under intense scrutiny. After replacing Nick Saban, expectations were sky-high. But the Oklahoma loss and subsequent ranking drop have raised questions about whether DeBoer's system can compete at the highest level.
The Turnover Problem
Against Oklahoma, Alabama committed three turnovers that led to 17 Oklahoma points. This wasn't a fluke—it exposed fundamental issues with ball security and decision-making that DeBoer must address immediately.
The Offensive Line Concerns
Oklahoma's defensive pressure was relentless. Alabama's offensive line struggled to protect the quarterback and create running lanes. Against Auburn's defensive front, these issues could be exploited again.
Historical Perspective: Alabama's Playoff Struggles
The 2025 situation evokes memories of past seasons when one loss derailed championship aspirations. Alabama fans know the feeling—and they're hoping this year's story has a different ending.
The Bigger Picture: SEC Playoff Race
Alabama's drop to #10 highlights the unprecedented competitiveness of the SEC in 2025. With multiple teams sitting at 8-2 or 9-1, the conference is a complete toss-up for playoff spots.
SEC Teams in CFP Mix
- #3 Texas A&M - Leading SEC
- #4 Georgia - Perennial contender
- #5 Texas - Strong case
- #7 Ole Miss - Competitive résumé
- #8 Oklahoma - Just beat Alabama
- #10 Alabama - Last team in
The expanded 12-team playoff should accommodate multiple SEC teams, but there are no guarantees. Alabama's ranking collapse shows how quickly fortunes can change—and how little margin for error exists in college football's new playoff era.
Final Thoughts: Redemption or Regret?
Alabama's fall from #4 to #10 is more than a rankings story—it's a referendum on the program's direction under Kalen DeBoer. Can the Crimson Tide bounce back from adversity? Can they protect the football and execute when it matters most?
The Iron Bowl will answer these questions. A dominant win over Auburn could restore confidence and keep playoff hopes alive. A loss—or even a close, unconvincing victory—could signal deeper problems that extend beyond one disappointing week.
For Alabama, November 29 isn't just another Iron Bowl. It's a crossroads that will define DeBoer's tenure and determine whether 2025 is remembered as a rebuilding step forward or a missed opportunity.
Key Takeaways
- ✓ Rankings Drop: Alabama fell from #4 to #10 after Oklahoma loss
- ✓ Current Record: 9-2 (6-1 SEC)
- ✓ Playoff Status: Last at-large team in projected field
- ✓ Iron Bowl Stakes: Must-win to maintain playoff hopes
- ✓ Problem Areas: Turnovers (3 vs Oklahoma), offensive line pressure
- ✓ Playoff Probability: 84% if Alabama beats Auburn (ESPN model)
- ✓ Next Game: vs Auburn, Nov 29 @ Jordan-Hare Stadium